‘Flight Risk’ Lifting Lionsgate To Second No. 1 Opening Of 2025 With $11M-$12M+ – Box Office Replace

UPDATED SATURDAY AM: It’s sure to be one of many lowest total grossing weekends of 2025 with round $63M for all movies, and there’s not even a snowstorm responsible. That’s how this a part of the calendar sometimes swings on the box office. A yr in the past at this time, all titles counted $54.5M per Box Office Mojo, and that was the second worst weekend of 2024. For all of the blah blah from distribution heads that moviegoing is usually a 52 weekend enterprise, there are just a few lifeless zones on the calendar.

Still the place others see pitfalls, Lionsgate sees alternative, so good on them as soon as once more for programming a large launch the place there wasn’t any with the Mel Gibson directed, Mark Wahlberg starring Flight Risk which can notch the studio their second No 1 opening of the yr with $11M-$12M. It’s additionally the studio’s second after Den of Thieves 2: Pantera since Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes run at No. 1 in November-early December 2023. Once once more in 2025, Lionsgate has opened a movie to the highest of monitoring (Lionsgate, your rivals noticed this at $12M, OK?).

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Despite the No. 1 opening right here for Wahlberg, and 2x Oscar winner Gibson (the filmmaker’s third No. 1 opening after Passion of the Christ and Apocalypto), the entire movie looks like a non-event, regardless of the trailer hook of “Mayday, Mayday, the pilot is a hitman” and that’s as a result of we’ve seen these airplane in peril movies earlier than. In reality, Michelle Dockery, who stars in Flight Risk, starred in considered one of some of these pics earlier than again of their heyday, and that was 2014’s Liam Neeson Non-Stop which debuted to $28.8M ($92.1M home closing).

Jodie Foster’s 2005 thriller Flightplan was one other one with a $24.6M begin ($89.7M closing). Lionsgate opened Plane two Januarys in the past to $10.2M. This is simply the place this airplane style lives, and audiences have seen it earlier than. Flight Risk was originally set for October 2024.

There’s additionally one thing to be stated about Wahlberg’s box office drawing energy of late. Not counting the Tom Holland starring Sony Playstation franchise movie Uncharted ($44M), it’s been some time for the reason that 2x Oscar-nominated actor has opened a movie to north of $20M on his personal, a la 2016’s Deepwater Horizon ($20.2M) and 2014’s Lone Survivor ($37.8M). Flight Risk‘s opening right here isn’t that removed from his 2018 STX motion movie Mile 22 which debuted to $13.7M, and it’s above his latest solo turns Arthur the King ($7.6M) and Father Stu ($5.4M). All of this stated, Wahlberg was one of many main the reason why moviegoers purchased tickets to this at 32% in PostTrak exits. Anyone questioning why Lionsgate would launch two dude motion movies inside two weeks of one another, know that Wahlberg pulls in additional ladies. Flight Risk counts 46% ladies/54% males to Den of Thieves 2: Pantera‘s 37% ladies/63% males.

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One advertising and marketing supply knocked Lionsgate on this movie that they solely launched two one-sheets and one trailer. However, the bean-counting, frugal studio isn’t going to overspend (P&A mid $20Ms) after they know the products are restricted. Forget about the truth that critics detest Flight Risk calling it “dumb” or as San Francisco Chronicle‘s Bob Strauss whines “The equal of a suspenseful Spirit Airlines business…”, audiences aren’t actually thrilled with this bumpy airflight via the mountains movie giving it a C CinemaRating, and 63% on Rotten Tomatoes viewers meter.

RelishMix says that “damaging leaning chatter on Flight Risk has viewers expressing the immense doubt they’ve within the challenge: ‘This movie is a tax writeoff.’ This pattern continues as extra followers predict an absence of success as a result of enterprise of the movie, ‘Everyone is aware of January is the place they ship movies out to die and be forgotten.’” Social media universe analytics at 79M throughout TikTook, X, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube are 40% behind different motion thrillers per RelishMix. Guy Ritchie’s motion movie The Gentleman by comparability had a attain of 104M on social earlier than its opening in January 2020, the pic opening to $10.6M (once more one other comp right here for Flight Risk, that Ritchie movie ending with a $36.4M stateside consequence).

What’s unlucky is that we sometimes count on extra from Gibson as a director by way of delivering distinctive epic options, not been there, executed that thrillers, and his first directorial in 9 years right here isn’t any Hacksaw Ridge. Maybe Lionsgate, which roams within the faith-based sector, can discuss him into making one other Biblical or New Testament characteristic. That purple state sector would completely present up for Gibson (PostTrak exits stated 16% went to see Flight Risk for Gibson as a filmmaker). Still, regardless of the low begin right here for Flight Risk, what’s clear is that these older-dude leaning (this one 45% over 25), cookie-cutter motion movies, significantly with stars, nonetheless want theatrical to propel them via the house entertainment window. And that’s what Lionsgate counts on with these titles.

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PLF screens are delivering 27% of the weekend for Flight Risk. The movie is enjoying the perfect within the South Central and West with the Harkins Estrella Falls 16 in Goodyear AZ the highest grossing cinema within the nation with $13K to this point.

6. Presence (NEON) 1,750 theaters, Fri $1.38M 3-day $3.1M/Wk 1

Audiences just like the Steven Soderbergh ghost story just a bit bit greater than Flight Risk at C+. PostTrak audiences fell asleep at 58% with a 33% particular advocate. Mostly males at 56%. Forty-one p.c of moviegoers had been 25-34 and 32% had been over 35. Diversity demos had been 53% Caucasian, 24% Hispanic/Latino, 11% Black, 9% Asian & 4% NatAm/Other. Best play for the Soderbergh movie is East, South Central and West with the AMC Burbank 30 the No. 1 home venue with $23K via Friday.

Other:

Brave the Dark (ANG) 2,230 theaters, Fri $920K, 3-day $2.2M/Wk 1
The Jared Harris drama from the faith-based studio will get an A CinemaRating. PostTrak is nice at 86% and 66% particular advocate, however the devoted aren’t going. Turnout is 47% males, 53% ladies, 74% of the viewers 35+ years previous with the largest quad being 55+ at 37%. Diversity demos are 66% White, 15% Latino/Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian & 6% NatAm/Other. Highest grossing venue for the pic within the nation? The Penn Cinema in Lititz PA with $25K to this point.

UPDATED, Friday noon: Lionsgate is taking a look at its second No. 1 opening of 2025 with the Mel Gibson-directed and Mark Wahlberg-starring Flight Risk, which is grossing $4 million-$4.5 million at the moment and eyeing a gap that’s plus or minus $11M. Remember, it’s an enormous NFL weekend, so hopefully that doesn’t slide sort out the projections we’re seeing right here.

The movie price within the mid-$20M vary, with Lionsgate funding two-thirds of that with international gross sales. P&A is round mid-$20Ms as nicely. Flight Risk is booked at 3,161 theaters.

In second at the moment is the sixth weekend of Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King at 3,420 websites with a $1.65M Friday and $7.4M 3-day, off 39%, for a operating whole of $219.7M.

Third belongs to Sony’s second body of its R-rated SZE and Keke Palmer comedy One of Them Days at 2,675 theaters, with $2.1M Friday, $7M 3-day, off 41%, and a 10-day by Sunday EOD with $24.3M.

Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at 3,097 theaters is seeing a sixth Friday of $950,000, 3-day of $4.4M, -49%, and a operating cume of $225M.

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Fifth is a struggle between Neon’s Steven Soderbergh-directed Presence and Universal’s Wolf Man for round $3M. Presence is taking a look at round $1.4M at the moment at 1,730 places, whereas because the Blumhouse horror movie is defanging at -72% for a operating cume by Sunday of $17.4M.

Angel Studios’ Brave the Dark at 2,230 websites is seeing round $1M at the moment and a $2.4M opening.

PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Lionsgate’s launch of Mel Gibson’s Flight Risk starring Mark Wahlberg made in $950,000 in previews Thursday night time. The final time Gibson directed was 9 years in the past, for the two-time Oscar-winning World War II movie Hacksaw Ridge, additionally from Lionsgate. It’s not clear but whether or not Flight Risk will win the weekend — monitoring is saying $9M-$11M — but when it does, it would rep the second No. 1 end this month for Lionsgate becoming a member of Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, a feat the studio hasn’t pulled off since November 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.

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Flight Risk is booked at 3,100 theaters, of which 660 are Premium Large Format screens and 273 Motion seat screens (4DX, DBOX, MX4D). Reviews for Flight Risk are 25% on Rotten Tomatoes; Den of Thieves 2 stood at 60% with critics on RT, and that landed Lionsgate a No. 1 win with $15M.

Tracking service Quorum spots among the gasoline leaking on Flight Risk: Unaided consciousness has stalled at 4%, which isn’t a superb check in a pic’s closing week, with curiosity slipping from 55% to 51%. Flight Risk was 3 stars with Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak audiences final night time at 72% optimistic. Men at 58% and an total viewers at 80% over 25 confirmed up.

Headwinds Flight Risk will fly into this weekend embrace two NFL convention championship video games. If Flight Risk nose-dives, it’s on the paws of Disney’s Mufasa; The Lion King, which is heading into its sixth weekend with an eye fixed at $8M-$9M. Mufasa gained its fifth week with $18M (-4%) and has a operating cume of $212.3M. The added bonus for Mufasa: It’s not on PVOD, and it’s purely theatrical. Exhibitors are rewarding Disney with these window phrases this weekend with stable display screen holds.

Neon’s drone-shot ghost thriller Presence from Steven Soderbergh, which it took the world on a yr in the past after the pic’s Sundance premiere, is eyeing a $2M-$3M opening at 1,750 theaters. Previews had been $385K. In its pure Thursday night time previews alone, as a comp, Mubi’s The Substance in September did $327K earlier than opening to $3.2M. Presence is 89% licensed recent with critics, and a pair of stars with final night time’s PostTrak viewers, who had been 61% males, 73% over the age of 25.

Neon beat out 10 different bidders on the pageant for Presence a yr in the past, the deal on the time coming 35 years after Soderbergh’s $1 million Sundance deal for his profession splash intercourse, lies, & videotape and subsequent Palme d’Or win at Cannes. In Presence, a household strikes right into a suburban home and turns into satisfied they aren’t alone. A supernatural pressure has infiltrated the home and takes a selected curiosity within the couple’s daughter. Lucy Liu stars with Chris Sullivan, Callina Liang, Julia Fox, Eddy Maday and West Mulholland.

Angel Studios has the Damian Harris-directed, Jared Harris-starring Brave the Dark, which additionally appears to do within the single digits at 2,200 websites. Previews had been $200K final night time, per sources. PostTrak exits are 4 1/2 stars with a 62% particular advocate for the turnout, which leaned 51% feminine and 63% over 45 turnout. Mad Men‘s Harris performs Mr. Deen, who discovers considered one of his college students, Nate, has been residing out of his automobile and thrown into jail. Mr. Deen decides to bail him out, decided to curb Nate’s self-destructive habits, however shortly discovers a number of darkish secrets and techniques which can be slowly tearing Nate aside. What began as a superb deed turns into a determined struggle to avoid wasting Nate from his personal demons.

Second for the week was Sony’s R-rated Keke Palmer-SZE comedy One of Them Days with $17M after a $938K Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The movie might ease round 40% in its second weekend. Third for the week was Universal/Blumhouse’s Wolf Man, which didn’t delight with $14.4M in week one at 3,354 websites. Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $12.7M (-11%), good for a operating whole of $220.5M; the pic is presently on digital PVOD. Fifth for the week is Den of Thieves 2 with $9.2M (-53%) at 3,008 websites and a operating whole of $28.8M.

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