‘Wicked’ Seeing $117M Opening, ‘Gladiator II’ Still Conquering $60M – Saturday AM Box Office Replace

UPDATED, SATURDAY AM: Refresh for updates and chart…Universal’s Wicked is coming in with a $46.7M Friday plus previews which has the studio predicting a $117M opening at this level. Paramount’s Gladiator II stands at $60M after a $22M Friday/previews.

Wicked will get an A CinemaScore, a grade that’s up there with different Broadway function variations equivalent to Les Miserables (A), Chicago (A-), Annie (A-), Mamma Mia (A-) and better than Into the Woods (B). Gladiator II will get a B versus the unique 2000 movie’s A. Still, moviegoers just like the later with 84% on Rotten Tomatoes viewers meter and 4 stars on PostTrak with a powerful 64% particular advocate.

There was loads of pent-up demand for a repeat of Barbenheimer this weekend on the box office. That’s a excessive bar to succeed in, however nonetheless exists with two movies ringing in $177M alone in a body that’s shaping as much as be an estimated $209M for all titles. Also take into account the truth that we’re not within the deep of summer time.

Let’s consider just a few issues in case {the marketplace} hits a bump, however actually, there may be nothing to complain about:

–It’s a vacation week, so there’s loads of time to move to the cinemas this week. While there was just one% Okay-12 colleges off yesterday, that grows to 47% Okay-12 and 18% schools on Monday per Comscore, finally rising to close 100% ranges on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the latter being one of many highest grossing days of the yr. As such, each of those titles will proceed to leg out into December.

–As far as Wicked goes,– it’s a musical. And they’ve their ceilings on the B.O. The solely ones which excelled to openings north of $100M had been Disney ones based mostly on earlier animated pics, i.e. The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast (The authentic NRG projection on this was $80M, and Gladiator II was at $65M. So, we’re nonetheless in superb form on Wicked.

–Despite the loopy presales on Wicked, it’s a feminine heavy movie, which implies they’re a shifting goal when studios attempt to predict their turnout. Remember, many had Taylor Swift: Eras Tour north of $100M earlier than it settled at $93.2M. Hopefully at present’s drop isn’t so steep given how front-loaded feminine movies are usually. Currently, Wicked is predicted to say no -18% in opposition to Friday/previews for a $38.1M take.

–Both Gladiator II and Wicked are very lengthy, respectively at 2 hours 28 minutes and a pair of hours and 40 minutes. Barbie clocked in just below 2 hours versus Oppenheimer‘s 3 hours.

Demos on Wicked are 72% ladies with 6% between 13-17, 25% between 18-24, 32% between 25-54 (the most important demo), and 38% of the viewers over 35. Diversity demos are 54% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black and eight% Asian. PLF screens and a few Imax are delivering simply over a 3rd of the weekend to Wicked‘s enterprise. The Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo movie is taking part in greatest within the East however fairly even throughout the nation with AMC Universal Citywalk the best grossing multiplex in America with $197K to date.

UPDATED, Friday PM: The Glicked weekend is presently wanting like a $120 million opening for Universal’s Wicked after a $48.5M Friday plus previews, whereas Gladiator II is shaping as much as $23.5M in Friday/previews turning right into a $61M opening weekend at 3,573 areas.

Generally, noon projections are conservative, so we’ll see whether or not there’s a rush of girls tonight, and households into tomorrow, for Wicked. Per Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, 71% ladies confirmed up final night time. Gladiator II is extra the date-night movie with 61% males and 39% ladies displaying as much as Thursday screenings.

For the month of November, Wicked presently ranks because the tenth greatest opening ever on the home box office, whereas additionally feasibly breaking the opening document for a movie based mostly on a Broadway musical, defeating Stephen Sondheim’s Into the Woods ($31M). It’s additionally the third greatest opening of 2024 yr so far, forward of Warner Bros’ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111M). Wicked Part One, earlier than P&A, price $150M. The Jon M. Chu-directed title is booked at 3,888 theaters and is presently anticipated to publish a $30,800 per-theater common.

PostTrak exits are robust for Wicked with 5 stars for normal audiences and fogeys, and 4 1/2 stars for youths beneath 12. It’s a generational draw whereby the mothers who noticed it when hit Broadway in 2003 as kids are actually of their 30s taking their very own youngsters to the movie. Wicked will get a 90% optimistic with a through-the-roof 80% particular advocate.

As we talked about earlier than, Gladiator II was all the time shaping as much as be Ridley Scott’s greatest opening on the home box office, besting Hannibal ($58M). It’s additionally Denzel Washington’s greatest stateside begin, forward of American Gangster ($43.5M), which was additionally a movie he did with Scott. As we advised you earlier within the week, the sequel, which obtained a head begin forward of Wicked overseas, already crossed the century mark on the overseas box office. Gladiator II PostTrak exits are additionally strong at 4 stars and a 77% optimistic.

Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ Red One is seeing a second Friday of $3.4M, and a second weekend of $13.5M, -58%, for a working whole of $53M at 4,032 websites. The $200M-$250M Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans manufacturing crossed the $100M global mark at present.

Angel Studios has a large launch this weekend, the interval drama thriller Bonhoeffer. Pastor. Spy. Assassin at 1,900 websites, which is wanting like $2.4M at present and $4.8M for the weekend in fourth place. The Todd Komarnicki-directed and -written thriller follows Dietrich Bonhoeffer, who joins a lethal plot to assassinate Hitler, risking his religion and destiny to save lots of tens of millions of Jews from genocide.

Fifth goes to Sony’s fifth weekend of Venom: The Last Dance with a $900K Friday and $4M weekend, taking its home tally to $133.8M.

FRIDAY AM UPDATED AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Universal is looking Wicked Part One‘s previews at $19.2 million.

That quantity for the Jon M. Chu-directed, Cynthia Erivo- and Ariana Grande-starring function take of the Broadway musical is comprised of Monday and Wednesday fan screenings, plus Thursday’s previews that started at 2 p.m.

Broken down: Monday’s Amazon Prime screenings generated $2.5M at 750 theatres within the U.S. Wednesday advance screenings grossed one other $5.7M from 2,000 theaters within the U.S. and Canada. Standard previews yesterday at 3,300 theaters yielded a complete Thursday gross of $11M.

Just by way of pure advance money, Wicked is just below the $23M preview money of Disney’s 2019 The Lion King, and Warner Bros’ Barbie at $22.3M (that gross wsa from each Wednesday and Thursday exhibits). It’s method forward of Disney’s 2017 live-action adaptation of Beauty and the Beast ($16.3M). Updated intestine from monitoring this AM on Wicked is $120M+. The different issue to remember on heavy female-skewing movies is that they will cave on a Saturday, e.g., Barbie was down 32% off Friday/previews and Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 was off 26%. But there are exceptions, notably on movies which have a household issue, e.g., Beauty and the Beast dipped -2% between its Friday to Saturday.

Paramount’s official quantity on the R-rated Gladiator II is $6.5M at 3,200 areas. That preview determine is true within the neighborhood of myriad current sequels that delivered various openings, together with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($6.6M previews, $58.4M 3-day), No Time to Die ($6.3M, $55.2M) and Bad Boys for Life ($6.3M, $62.5M). There’s additionally the Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny comp. Tracking’s up to date forecast for the sequel epic directed by Ridley Scott and starring Paul Mescal and Denzel Washington is $59M-$66M. Rotten Tomatoes viewers rating is a wholesome 84%.

RELATED: Jon M. Chu’s ‘Wicked’ Soundtrack: What Songs Are In ‘Part 1’?

Keeping tabs: The working cume for the 2024 box office by November 17 stood at $7 billion, $889M behind the identical interval in 2023 and 9% forward of the identical interval in 2022 (the Top Gun: Maverick box office yr). This is all in response to Comscore. Starting this weekend by New Year’s Eve, can we clear one other $2 billion to get us to final yr’s $9B closing?

PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: From New York City to Kansas and onward to the City of Angels, mobs are going to the movies tonight as Universal’s long-awaited Wicked Part One and Paramount’s Gladiator II sq. off for what is anticipated to be one of many yr’s richest weekends. To date, the most important weekend for all titles year-to-date was July 26-28, per Comscore, when Deadpool & Wolverine despatched the complete market to $285.3 million.

Early figures tonight — not attributed to any studios as a result of they keep mum till tomorrow morning — is that Wicked is casting an estimated spell of $8M tonight alone. However, in the event you rely Monday’s Amazon promotion previews and final night time’s premium-format fan showings, that whole preview tally flies to round $20M, I hear. As we advised you beforehand, we heard presales had been round $30M; nevertheless, as soon as there’s a must-see title for feminine moviegoers, they’ll undoubtedly ebook a date to the cinema. With walk-up enterprise unpredictable, the outlook is wild for Wicked, with a three-day whole estimated between $130M-$150M. The argument on the decrease finish of the projection is that the Jon M. Chu-directed, Marc Platt-produced movie is 2 hours and 40 minutes.

The greatest opening for any function musical is Jon Favreau’s 2019 The Lion King at $191.7M; it had a runtime of 1 hour and 58 minutes. The greatest opening for a movie based mostly on a Broadway musical is Into the Woods ($31M). Universal’s Mamma Mia! sequel, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, opened greater at $34.9M, nevertheless, that wasn’t based mostly on stage musical IP. Wicked has all of the spells to overperform this weekend at 90% licensed contemporary with critics and a 99% audiences rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

RELATED: ‘Wicked’ Movie Cast: Who Plays Who?

Words can’t to start to element the quantity of selling oomph Universal put behind this movie, and extra amazingly, they did so on the function adaptation of a Broadway musical — a style with which Hollywood has a love-hate relationship. Wicked‘s advertising and marketing playbook makes Disney’s promotional plans for Star Wars: The Force Awakens appear like some grassroots guerrilla stunt for a SXSW movie.

Granted, the means by which Uni made its preview money is apples to oranges in contrast with earlier titles, nevertheless, by way of pure {dollars}, Wicked‘s whole money is forward of Beauty and the Beast‘s $16.3M in addition to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1‘s $17M, each female-skewing tentpoles. Beauty and the Beast clocked at 2 hours and 9 minutes and opened to $174.7M, whereas Mockingjay 1 was 2 hours and three minutes and debuted to $121.8M.

Gladiator II, in the meantime is between $6.5M-$7M and that’s for Thursday alone. Duly be aware, Paramount didn’t have large preview days upfront, only a small 200-theater “Screen Unseen” sneak. Critics actually don’t have anything to complain about with the Ridley Scott-directed sequel at 72% licensed contemporary on Rotten Tomatoes. Gladiator II‘s preview dough is akin to that of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny ($7.2M Thursday) which obtained it to a $60.3M opening. That’s proper round what Gladiator II is anticipated to beat by Sunday.

As we all the time say on Thursday, take these estimates with a grain of salt. If the studio studies decrease, it doesn’t essentially imply a movie is with out momentum.

RELATED: Where To Watch ‘Gladiator’: Is Ridley Scott’s 2000 Film Streaming?

What was clear from Deadline’s rounds at theaters tonight is if you wish to get your wiccan on, ya costume up and head over to the TCL Chinese Theatre on Hollywood Boulevard, otherwise you head to a spot that’s no place like dwelling: re Dorothy’s dwelling in Kansas City, KS. Meanwhile, over on the AMC in Burbank, CA, which is normally any movie’s highest-grossing cinema within the nation in a given weekend, the 6 p.m. Imax of Gladiator II was bought out.

Natalie Sitek contributed to this report.

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